Arnold Toynbe is a famous English historian. His 20 volume masterpiece "historical research" and Spengler's "decline of the west" and the "Rome gibbon early rise and fall" in parallel, is called "the giant History Museum, is the most famous contemporary American philosophy professor Li Weiyu of human civilization through the heritage of the" most and most sustained meditation". He and Spengler have the same thing: they both have insight into the decline of Western civilization in twentieth Century. But he did not like Spengler, depicts a terrible hopeless prospect for the west, he tries to salvation spirit of Christ to save the west. His research was inherited from British empiricism, and his core ideas were influenced by the French philosopher Bergson, whose inspiration came from Gerd of germany. His early studies of ancient Rome led to the idea of a global integration that convinced him of the unity of human beings and was thus called a "global unified prophet"". Below, I will extract from his old age and Japanese social activist Ikeda co authored the dialogue: "outlook twenty-first Century", take a look at how he predicted the unity of the world:
　　The virtue of the Chinese nation has continued to function in the humiliating century. This kind of virtue is also embodied in the activities of overseas Chinese people who have migrated to different parts of the world.
　　East Asia has many historical legacies, which can make it the unifying geographical and cultural axis of the world. In my opinion, these heritages have the following aspects:
　　First, the experience of the Chinese nation. In the past twenty-one centuries, China has maintained an empire all over the world and has been an example of a truly regional country.
　　Second, in the long course of Chinese history, the Chinese nation gradually cultivated the spirit of the world.
Third, humanism in the Confucian worldview.
　　Fourth, the rationalism of Confucianism and buddhism.
　　Fifth, East Asians are sensitive to the mystery of the universe, and believe that the universe will be defeated if it wants to dominate it. I think this is the most precious sense of taoism.
　　Sixth, this intuition is Buddhism, Taoism and Chinese all genres of Philosophy (except today extinct Legalists) have in common. The aim of man is not to dominate the nature beyond his own conceit, but to have a belief that he must live in harmony with nature.
　　Seventh, in the past, in military and non military two areas, science was applied to the modern competition of technology, while the Westerners were dominant, but East Asian countries could defeat them. The Japanese have proved it.
　　Eighth, the courage of the Japanese and Vietnamese to dare to challenge the west. This courage will continue in the future, but I hope that in the next stage of human history, it can contribute to the constructive cause of solving human problems.
　　In the modern world, I have personally learned that the Chinese are competent for any profession and that they can maintain a high standard of family life. The Chinese are able to hold on to this virtue no matter when the country is declining or when it is actually in turmoil.
　　It is probably not the Western European countries, nor the countries of Western Europe, but China that will unify the world in the future. And because China has such a political signal for future political missions, China has an amazing prestige in the world today. China's unified government in the past two thousand and two hundred years, in addition to a very short period of time, has been politically hundreds of millions of people unified as a whole. Moreover, a unified China is recognized in the political sovereignty of all protected states. The influence of culture even permeates far away regions, what is called the kingdom of china". As a matter of fact, China has been the center of half the world since almost 221 bc. In the last five hundred years, the world has been united in every field of politics and in the west. I am afraid it is China's destiny to bring more than half the world and bring political unity and peace to the world as a whole.
　　As for the past China, Napoleon said, "don't wake the sleeping giant."". The English defeated Napoleon and immediately launched the Opium War, which awakened china.
　　What role will China play in human society in the future?
　　Because of the expansion and temporary rule of the Western Ethnic forces, the earth human society has been rid of this ruling power and will continue in the future. In the last row into the earth in the human society, China just stay in the three countries, one of the five powers or more powerful position? Or become the world's "the kingdom", is the future of the China mission?
　　This is a matter of concern for all mankind, especially the Soviet Union and Japan, which are closer to china. The United States can withdraw from the East Asian mainland coast and the sea islands to Guam, and then withdraw from Hawaii. Once needed to be withdrawn to the west coast of the United States, the United States and China can be separated from the entire Pacific ocean. But today, simply geographical distance is no longer important. The invention of rockets led to the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean as narrow as a stream. All countries, including China, are within each other's straight-line range. That's the reality of today.
　　So, in my opinion, when all mankind grows into a single society, it may be the day of world unification. Today in the atomic age, this unified conquest by force - the traditional way of unifying the vast part of the earth - has been hard to do. At the same time, the peaceful reunification that I foresee must be centered on the geographical and cultural axis and continuously crystallized and expanded. I have a hunch that this axis is not in the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union, but in East asia.
　　East Asia, consisting of China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, has a large population. The vitality, the diligence, the courage, the wisdom of these nations are no less than those of any other nation in the world. From the geographical point of view, this is from the common heritage of Chinese culture and Buddhist point of view, or from the outside of modern western civilization had to compromise this common problem, they are connected in a bond. And as far as the Chinese are concerned, thousands of years have succeeded in uniting hundreds of millions of people from the political and cultural world, than any other nation in the world. They demonstrate the ability to be politically and culturally unified and have unparalleled success. Such unification is the absolute requirement of the world today. The reason why the Chinese and the East Asian peoples are cooperative, in the process of human unification which is considered as indispensable and inevitable, may play a leading role, and the reason lies here.
　　If I speculate that there is no mistake, it is estimated that the unification of the world will be realized in peace. This is the only feasible road in the atomic age. However, although it is the Chinese nation, it is not peaceful at any time. In the Warring States period, as in ancient Greece and modern Europe, there were also divisions and struggles. However, after the Han Dynasty, the belligerent spirit of the Warring States period was abandoned. The founding emperor of the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang, completed the unification of China as far back as 202 bc. Before that, the political unity of the first emperor was accomplished by force. Therefore, after his death, there appeared a place of nationalism restoration. In the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang kept the balance of Chinese national feelings from the local decentralization to the cosmopolitanism. Contrary to Qin Shihuang's actions of charm and despotism, he skillfully used his life to accomplish the cause.
　　Those who will unify the world in the future must be cosmopolitan, just as the second rulers of China have achieved greater success. At the same time, the ability to achieve the ultimate goal is required. The unification of the world is the way to avoid human collective suicide. In this respect, what is best prepared now is the Chinese people who have developed a unique way of thinking in the past two thousand years. Not in half the world, but in the whole earth where people can live or socialize. A unified future must be achieved, and the original model of the statesman is Liu Bang of the Han dynasty.
　　Editor's note:
　　The speech of foreign historians should seem to be worth pondering by chinese. When we look down on their own Chinese Chinese culture, when we Chinese their own history improperly belittle oneself, foreigners can see our culture and our history of outstanding place, even in the eyes of the culture they may unify the whole world.
　　However, looking back, we Chinese in their own culture and know how many? Against Confucianism, it seems that even the Confucian classics have not read; oppose Buddhism, understanding just seems to only stay in religious, but failed to see the Buddhist outlook on life analysis; against the traditional culture. It is the traditional culture of the cicadas do not know what, just because the opposition so opposed, say a little truth.
　　Why don't you in a calm mood, quietly understand our culture? Who oppose, there must be a strong opposition who reason to receive flattery or compliment of the era, that Confucianism is a waste, must study by oneself say a Confucian garbage 123th, to convince others, if only no argument argument, just on a top hat Confucian a top, no one will believe. The same is true against buddhism. Some philosophers have said that Buddhist philosophy is the most beautiful philosophy. However, there are many people who can not tolerate Buddhist philosophy in this philosophical forum. Philosophy should not be exclusive, and good philosophy is always the best.
　　Here, I want to say: as we Chinese, but as a hobby of philosophy Chinese, must have a sound understanding of its history and culture history, rather than standing on the starting point of criticism, historical and cultural studies is to criticize, this is not good. Mr. Qian Muwei said: "there should be some warmth in studying the history and culture of our nation.". In my view, in the present China, as long as it can be done to the point, it has been very good, warmth seems to be difficult to achieve among many people. Of course, this is not to say that history does not need to be criticized, but not so. The critical criteria, is established on the basis of the point, and to achieve this point, is must be established on the basis of understanding or insight on their own history and culture, and not others, or sense judgment. In short, we must have a good view of history, to be able to accurately review and study of national history and culture, to be able to extract from the history and culture of the system can China involved party summary on philosophy.
　　Arnold Joseph Toynbe (Arnold Joseph Toynbee, 1889 - 1975) was a famous British historian, he was known as "the greatest historian in modern times". Toynbee has a unique vision of history, and his 12 book, historical studies, tells the rise and decline of all the major nations in the world. It is called "the greatest achievement of modern scholars"". Because his uncle is a historian specializing in the history of economic development, also called Arnold Toynbe (Arnold Toynbee, 1852 - 1883), in order to distinguish between the two, people usually call the two person's full name, to avoid confusion.